| Inventory_Type | Name | Inventory_Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Concentrate For Inhalation | Walden - Concentrate - Guava Punch 1g | 141.60000 |
| Cannabis Mix Infused | Cinex - Live Foggers - 2x0.5g | 104.71429 |
| Concentrate For Inhalation | White Label - Concentrate - Gods Gift 1g | 95.60000 |
| Concentrate For Inhalation | Silver Series - Concentrate - Gods Gift 1g | 95.60000 |
| Usable Cannabis | Sunshine Flower Tangie 3.5g | 94.50000 |
| Hydrocarbon Concentrate | RSO - Hitz - LSD - 1 Gram | 92.20000 |
| Cannabis Mix Packaged | Redbird -Bubba Smash - PR -1g | 90.20000 |
| Solid Edible | Wave Caramels 1:1 CBD HYBRID 3.95oz | 90.10000 |
| Solid Edible | Wave Caramels 1:1 CBD 3.95oz | 90.10000 |
| Liquid Edible | Lil Rays Lemonade Sugar Free Pineapple 100mg 1.75 | 85.40000 |
| Hydrocarbon Concentrate | 1g Cinex Wax Sauce Boss | 80.83333 |
| Usable Cannabis | INDOSMOKES - Dutchberry - Filtered - 10pk x .7g | 79.43750 |
| Usable Cannabis | SH - Cosmic Chem 2pk PR 1.2g | 78.40000 |
| Cannabis Mix Packaged | Kush Mints Preroll - By Redbird 1g | 78.00000 |
| Usable Cannabis | Ballin - Flower - Kush 3.5g | 73.22222 |
| Liquid Edible | Cormorant 4oz Raspberry Lemonade Sorbet 100mg | 72.80000 |
| Solid Edible | Ceres - Edible - Mixed Berry 5:1 | 72.57143 |
| Cannabis Mix Packaged | RedBird - Crumble Lime PR - 1g | 69.33333 |
| Usable Cannabis | Platinum - Pre Roll - Big Smooth 2.5g | 68.23077 |
| Usable Cannabis | 28g Donde Flower Grass Valley Farms | 64.60000 |
| Cannabis Mix Infused | Deluge Pinky 4pk Infused Pre-rolls | 64.33333 |
| Cannabis Mix Infused | Lebanese Gold 1g Infused Preroll Sitka J-228 | 63.20000 |
| Cannabis Mix Infused | Lebanese Gold 1g Infused Preroll Sitka J-229 | 63.20000 |
| Cannabis Mix Infused | Lebanese Gold 1g Infused Preroll Sitka J-356 | 63.20000 |
| Usable Cannabis | Agro Couture 28G Flower Strawberry Mango Haze 28g | 62.33333 |
The Doomed Product Detector: Which Cannabis SKUs Are About to Disappear?
Identifying Products at Risk of Discontinuation
CCRS
Product
Lifecycle
Detects underperforming cannabis products based on sales and inventory trends.
The Bottom Line Up Front
A more data-driven future for Washington’s competitive, saturated, and constantly evolving cannabis economy, identified doomed products before they hit reset bins.
This way stakeholders can:
streamline purchasing
reduce losses
improve category management
make strategic decisions based on real statewide data
Overview
Every January, WA retailers refresh their shelves — and thousands of slow‑moving SKUs quietly disappear.
This annual “reset cycle” removes products that no longer sell, have aged out of rotation, or have accumulated too much on-hand inventory.
Using 22+ million CCRS product-store movement records of 5.6+ million cannabis products and retail sales velocity metrics between August 04 - November 03, 2025, we modeled which active products show patterns consistent with impending extinction.
We identify “doomed” products by comparing:
Sales over the last 4 weeks vs. 13 weeks
Product velocity (units sold per store per week)
Inventory pressure (quantity on hand vs demand)
Market penetration (store count carrying the product)
Products with low velocity, shrinking demand, low penetration, and high inventory form a clear cluster of high‑risk items.
The analysis covers a 91-day window dating backward 4- and 13- weeks from 11-03-2025.
Table of dates used in this report:
| Metric | Dates Used |
|---|---|
| Analysis End Date | Nov 03, 2025 |
| 4-Week Window | Oct 05 → Nov 03, 2025 |
| 13-Week Window | Aug 04 → Nov 03, 2025 |
| 4-Week Length | 28 days |
| 13-Week Length | 91 days |
Building the “Doom Score”
A simple, intuitive rule‑of‑thumb score:
Low velocity (bottom quartile)
Declining trend (4w < 13w normalized)
High inventory pressure (Quantity-On-Hand (QOH): Velocity Ratio)
Low market penetration
When all four conditions align, the “doom_flag” is triggered.
These SKUs will likely be delisted before spring resets or stocked until best buy date has passed.
Doomed Product Table
Only showing 25 of 4,915 products as example:
4,915 products were found to be likely doomed.
Contact us for the complete list.
Table of Doom by Inventory Type
| Inventory_Type | Doom_Flag | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Usable Cannabis | Likely Doomed | 1126 |
| Concentrate For Inhalation | Likely Doomed | 1066 |
| Solid Edible | Likely Doomed | 1037 |
| Liquid Edible | Likely Doomed | 712 |
| Cannabis Mix Infused | Likely Doomed | 273 |
| Hydrocarbon Concentrate | Likely Doomed | 239 |
| Ethanol Concentrate | Likely Doomed | 178 |
| Topical Ointment | Likely Doomed | 153 |
| Cannabis Mix Packaged | Likely Doomed | 57 |
| CO2 Concentrate | Likely Doomed | 38 |
| Capsule | Likely Doomed | 11 |
| Non-Solvent based Concentrate | Likely Doomed | 11 |
| Tincture | Likely Doomed | 11 |
| Sample Jar | Likely Doomed | 3 |
Shelf‑Staleness Indicator
Measure time since last sale:
| ProductId | Name | Last_Sale | Days_Since_Last_Sale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10001943 | NWC-CA-19230Mimosa 1g Cart | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10009653 | SD IPR Redtailed .75g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10022409 | Watermelon Punch - 1g - Flavored Cartridge - The F | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10023570 | Indica - 1g - RSO - From The Soil | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10030585 | Paris Minis - Gelato 33 - 28g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10030588 | Flower Mini - Gelato X Dosido - 14g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10033211 | Sticky Frog BHO Triangle Kush 1g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10064786 | 7g MAC 10 Flower Greenrush | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10113823 | Cinnamon Mints 100mg - Double Delights | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10129323 | Mind Bender Pre-Roll (1g) - Blue Dream - 1g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10132211 | Emerald Mountain Dark Chocolate 10pk | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10143591 | Super Lemon Haze Honey Crystal 1.0g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10164491 | Hellavated: Double Mint 1pk.75g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10165640 | Phat Panda Platinum Line: Strange Lemons - PR 1g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10167203 | CERES Bath Salt Soothe 4 oz Topical | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10447854 | Gushers - 2x1g - Prerolls - Seattles Private Reser | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10474789 | ED 10pk CBD 1:1 Berry Swell | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10491991 | KOKOGEMZ - Peanut Butter Milk Chocolate 10pk Choco | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10533942 | Trap Trufflez - 3.5g - No Mids | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10540195 | Flower - MIX - (g) | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10559867 | NWCS - MARIS - STRAWBERRY - Retire Indica 100mg 14 | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10559892 | GABRIEL - Tina 3.5g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10574524 | OMG - 3.5g - Cookie Jar | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10580777 | PhatPanda PREROLL Dank Draaank 1g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10597136 | CNST - Gravity Gummies Watermelon - 1.13oz - 10p | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10603958 | AGC Super Lemon Haze Live Resin Cartridge 1g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10620099 | SubX Pre-roll Lemon Cherry Gelato 1pk 1g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10620823 | MAC1 28g H Falcanna | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10667942 | Heavyweight Farms Fox Power Flower 7g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10682513 | CRYSTAL CLEAR: DISTILLATE - GARY PEYTON - 1 GRAM | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10684055 | Bomber - White Truffle 2g Joint Gabriel | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10712986 | FTS Blueberry Preroll 2pk - 1.5g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10745720 | 1937 - 1937 1g Trade Sample - Peanut Butter Pie - 1g - Trade Sample | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10767265 | Smokiez Blue Raspberry 250mg CBD | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10768666 | Gary Payton by Pagoda - 1g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10778348 | 2:1 Indica PM Tincture 15ml [Ceres] | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10785546 | Raven Stargazer Myrtle CBDH Joint 3pk 1.8g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10791697 | Bulk Flower Lot - Mint Chocolate Chipz | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10802288 | SWF Huckleberry Pie 7g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 1080834 | OG Chem 28g - Phat Panda | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10821206 | QFS Original Fuzzywazhitz Infused Blunt 1g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10822170 | EZ-Vape Cured Resin Cartridge Skywalker OG | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10822700 | 10pk Supernova Strawberry Sativa Cosmic Candy - Sa | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10832657 | RED - Papaya Cake Micro Buds - 14g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10833909 | SWFT Truffle Single Cookies Cream | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10834592 | SM Gummy Bears Pre-Roll 1g 7pk | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10838266 | SLAB MECHANIX - BHO - LEMON SLUSHIE - 1G | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10838861 | TERPSTIX - Pineapple Flavor SATIVA Infused PR 1g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10852526 | Paris Prerolls (2x.5g) - Guava N°5 - 1g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
| 10861288 | Fleek Leaf Mini Buds - Gorilla Glue #4 - 14g | 2025-08-04 | 91 |
Short list of products stalling out of market in the last 91 days.
Some stores have:
50–70% of initial units still sitting in inventory.
Others have sold through most stock, indicating the product is dying market-wide, not store-specific.
A few retailers carry only 1–3 doomed SKUs, indicating tight inventory control.
The core insight is most “Doomed” products are not bad products —
They are orphans.
They don’t have:
enough stores
enough demand
enough velocity
enough brand support
enough shelf space
Even strong brands produce doomed items if a SKU fails to scale.
Top 20 Overstocked Products
| Name |
|---|
| Walden - Concentrate - Guava Punch 1g |
| Cinex - Live Foggers - 2x0.5g |
| White Label - Concentrate - Gods Gift 1g |
| Silver Series - Concentrate - Gods Gift 1g |
| Sunshine Flower Tangie 3.5g |
| RSO - Hitz - LSD - 1 Gram |
| Redbird -Bubba Smash - PR -1g |
| Wave Caramels 1:1 CBD HYBRID 3.95oz |
| Wave Caramels 1:1 CBD 3.95oz |
| Lil Rays Lemonade Sugar Free Pineapple 100mg 1.75 |
| 1g Cinex Wax Sauce Boss |
| INDOSMOKES - Dutchberry - Filtered - 10pk x .7g |
| SH - Cosmic Chem 2pk PR 1.2g |
| Kush Mints Preroll - By Redbird 1g |
| Ballin - Flower - Kush 3.5g |
| Cormorant 4oz Raspberry Lemonade Sorbet 100mg |
| Ceres - Edible - Mixed Berry 5:1 |
| RedBird - Crumble Lime PR - 1g |
| Platinum - Pre Roll - Big Smooth 2.5g |
| Cartridge Headband 1g H EZ Vape |
High inventory ratio numbers reflects overstocked products.
Retailer Exposure:
We identified 282 retailers currently carrying measurable quantities of doomed SKUs.
Store-level Risk: which stores carry the most doomed products?
The table displays only 20 of the 282 stores as an example
| LicenseeId | doomed_product_count | total_initial_qty_doomed | total_qoh_doomed | pct_on_hand | pct_sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 895 | 70 | 22478 | 7973 | 35.47024 | 64.52976 |
| 991 | 68 | 13008 | 6977 | 53.63622 | 46.36378 |
| 3032 | 64 | 22082 | 6829 | 30.92564 | 69.07436 |
| 1049 | 62 | 16203 | 7403 | 45.68907 | 54.31093 |
| 971 | 57 | 19818 | 6733 | 33.97416 | 66.02584 |
| 2602 | 56 | 22379 | 8667 | 38.72827 | 61.27173 |
| 1055 | 52 | 16539 | 5586 | 33.77471 | 66.22529 |
| 2031 | 50 | 23077 | 7319 | 31.71556 | 68.28444 |
| 2213 | 50 | 13848 | 5890 | 42.53322 | 57.46678 |
| 3227 | 43 | 12881 | 6344 | 49.25083 | 50.74917 |
| 2272 | 42 | 18517 | 7093 | 38.30534 | 61.69466 |
| 2368 | 42 | 9053 | 4127 | 45.58710 | 54.41290 |
| 3103 | 42 | 11954 | 5350 | 44.75489 | 55.24511 |
| 1036 | 41 | 12551 | 5371 | 42.79340 | 57.20660 |
| 3043 | 41 | 9234 | 4611 | 49.93502 | 50.06498 |
| 3151 | 41 | 9800 | 4848 | 49.46939 | 50.53061 |
| 1017 | 40 | 14865 | 4955 | 33.33333 | 66.66667 |
| 795 | 40 | 13592 | 4189 | 30.81960 | 69.18040 |
| 2963 | 39 | 16015 | 4814 | 30.05932 | 69.94068 |
| 728 | 38 | 11025 | 6042 | 54.80272 | 45.19728 |
Contact us for the full report.
Methodological Confidence
Why trust this model?
Built from millions of CCRS movement lines
Uses velocity, penetration, inventory pressure, and trend units
Flags products consistently across categories
Aligns with observed January reset behavior across retailers
Identifies dead inventory down to specific LicenseeIds
Combined with TECL’s open-data commitment, this gives WA industry a transparent, predictable way to understand SKU lifecycle risk. The WA cannabis industry has had no open, systematic way to identify which products are at risk before they vanish.
The Evergreen Canna Ledger’s Doomed Product Detector changes that.
In addition to the above report, TECL can also provide:
2️⃣ Escape Velocity Failure
Products newly introduced in January–March that never break into 5+ stores within the first 60 days.
3️⃣ Price Collapse
Rapid price drops over the last 60–90 days often signal overstock or liquidation.
4️⃣ Retailer Drop‑Off
Track how many stores have stopped ordering a product over the last 8 weeks.
The Evergreen Canna Ledger exists so operators — big and small — can rely on open, transparent, and independently analyzed data instead of rumors or vendor claims.
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